We are still waiting on the first extended stretch of hot and humid weather in New England. There are signs that the weather pattern will shift and more closely resemble the dog days of summer for the end of June and start of July. Following showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, the weather will likely become warm and increasingly humid for the rest of the week.

The annual Independence Rhode Races in Bristol, RI start early in the morning on the Saturday before the 4th in America’s most patriotic town. The 6:30 a.m. start time means an early alarm clock, but it also offers the best chance to beat the heat on a normal early-summer day. The early outlook for this year is for a warm and muggy day with a slight risk of showers on Saturday morning.

A frontal system slowly approaching from the west may not arrive until later in the day with a scattered shower and thunderstorm threat. That’s the way it looks right not, but there is not too much wiggle room in the forecast. If that system moves a bit quicker, then a passing shower or storm could roll through in the morning. A best-case scenario for the runners may be extensive cloud cover, but no rain. The temperature will likely climb out of the mid-upper 60s at sunrise and through the 70s to low 80s by late in the morning. That’s slightly warm for late-June, but something that we need to get used to soon.

The race looks like a sweatfest with dew points likely in the 60s, and possibly around 70. Once again, a month from now that will be commonplace, but we have not had too much very muggy weather. The good news is we’ll have at least a few days to acclimate to the warm and humid weather. Monday was in the 80s with high humidity, and it looks like Wednesday through Friday will be about the same.

The wind is always tricky to forecast for this race because of it’s proximity to Narragansett Bay. At this point, it does not look like a big factor. If it is very humid, a slight breeze can help evaporate sweat and aid in keeping you cooler. Right now, it looks like there will be a southwest breeze, but the door is still open to either 10-20 mph or less than 5 mph depending on how close that front is to Southern New England.

We’ll be tracking the forecast all week on runweather.com!